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关于“房地产”的报告

本报告研究涉及企业/品牌/案例:蒙娜丽莎,悦心健康,惠达卫浴,帝欧家居,四通股份;其他提及企业/品牌:国瓷红叶,冠福股份,华光陶瓷,银凤陶瓷,长城世家,硅元瓷器,顺祥陶瓷,红玫瑰陶瓷,九牧卫浴,浪鲸卫浴,辉煌厨卫,恒通卫浴,益高卫浴,帝王洁具,箭牌卫浴,恒洁卫浴,尚高卫浴,马可波罗瓷砖,东鹏瓷砖,冠珠陶瓷,欧神诺陶瓷,诺贝尔瓷砖,萨米特瓷砖,博德瓷砖,唯美陶瓷,新中源陶瓷

中国陶瓷行业发展面临严重困境。数据显示,2018年中国137家规模以上建筑陶瓷企业倒闭,几大主要瓷砖产区都有停产情况发生,其中河南和广东的产量下滑明显。受新冠疫情影响,2020年全球陶瓷行业面临危机,并且中国陶瓷在第一季度产量有所下降,外贸出口也收到影响,因此企业营业收入资金流入大幅减少,中小企业现金流面临着极大挑战。

The development of China's ceramic industry is facing serious difficulties. Data show that in 2018 China's 137 large-scale construction ceramics enterprises closed down, and several major ceramic tile production areas have ceased production. Among them, the output of Henan and Guangdong declined significantly. Affected by the new crown epidemic, the global ceramic industry is facing a crisis in 2020, and the output of Chinese ceramics has declined in the first quarter, and foreign trade exports have also been affected. Therefore, the company ’s operating income capital inflow has been greatly reduced, and the cash flow of SMEs is facing great challenges .

本报告研究涉及企业/品牌/案例:中国恒大;其他提及企业/品牌:中海地产,奥园健康,碧桂园,融创中国,和泓服务,保利发展,鑫苑服务,龙湖集团,蓝光嘉宝服务,中国铁建,银城生活服务,绿城中国,新大正物业,华夏幸福,金地集团,万科地产,保利物业,招商蛇口,龙光集团,时代邻里,新城控股,中国金茂,合景泰富,宝龙商业,华润置地,旭辉集团,滨江集团

从中国2019-2020年1月的CPI涨跌幅数据来看,2020年1月全国居民消费价格指数同比上涨5.4%,环比上涨1.4%。艾媒咨询分析师认为,受春节及疫情的影响,消费品和服务项目价格水平总体拉高幅度较大,1月的CPI环比及同比增长较高。其中,居住类的居民消费价格指数同比上涨0.5个百分点,环比持平。

Judging from China's January-2020 CPI rise and fall data, in January 2020, the national consumer price index rose 5.4% year-on-year and 1.4% month-on-month. iiMedia Research analysts believe that due to the impact of the Spring Festival and the epidemic, the price level of consumer goods and service items has generally risen significantly, and the CPI in January was higher than in the previous month. Among them, the consumer price index for residential products rose by 0.5 percentage points year-on-year, which was flat month-on-month. iiMedia Consulting analysts believe that due to the impact of the epidemic, coupled with the promotion of government policies to stabilize the property market, and the general tightening of the financing environment, the overall evaluation of the real estate market is biased towards the smallest.

本报告研究涉及企业/品牌/案例:碧桂园,万科,中国恒大,融创中国,保利地产,绿地控股,中海地产,新城控股,世茂房地产,华润置地,龙湖集团,中国奥园,滨江集团,富力地产,融创中国,美的置业,荣盛发展,当代置业,世联行,中国雄安集团,Rentomojo,装店易,居然之家,中指控股,公装云,homelane,SiteMinder,安歆集团,新湖房地产,Zeus Living,Zolostays,Virgil,宝家乡墅,斯维登集团,GMO Payment Gateway,五格货栈,MFund魔量基金,房天下,青橙资本,FJ Labs,Sequoia Capital(红杉海外),Accel Partners,凯雷亚洲基金,绿城中国,Alumni Ventures Group,CEAS Investments,Initialized Capital,中力资本,Trifecta Capital,Kima Ventures,Alven Capital,Zoopla,58产业基金

从2019年各月中国房地产开发投资情况来看,中国房地产开发累计投资增速,以及房地产住宅投资累计增长速度都呈下降趋势。2019年1—12月份,中国房地产开发企业到位资金178609亿元,同比增长7.6%。其中,国内贷款增长5.1%,外资增长62.7%,自筹资金增长4.2%,定金及预收款增长10.7%,个人按揭贷款增长15.1%。艾媒咨询分析师认为,以往国家降准松动资金后,资金最先会流向的领域是房地产行业,而在2019年频繁发布的房市紧缩政策的背景下,保证资金用于促进市场活力而非再大量注入市场,财政宽松政策对房地产业的利好有限。
From the perspective of China's real estate development investment in each month of 2019, the cumulative growth rate of China's real estate development investment and the cumulative growth rate of real estate and residential investment have shown a downward trend. From January to December 2019, the funds in place for Chinese real estate development enterprises reached 17.86 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 7.6%. Among them, domestic loans increased by 5.1%, foreign capital increased by 62.7%, self-raised funds increased by 4.2%, deposits and advance receipts increased by 10.7%, and personal mortgage loans increased by 15.1%. Ai Media Consulting analysts believe that after the country lowered its funds in the past, the first area that funds will flow to is the real estate industry, and in the context of the frequently tightened housing market policy issued in 2019, it is guaranteed that funds will be used to promote market vitality rather than A large number of injections into the market, fiscal easing policies have limited benefits to the real estate industry.

本报告研究涉及企业/品牌/案例:香港九龙仓集团,香港太古地产,银泰置地,大悦城,印力集团,万科,TRIWATER,融创,龙湖,凯德集团,DIAMOND TWO PTE 有限公司,红星地产,华润置地,恒隆地产,新鸿基,嘉里建设,中国金茂,富力地产,保利集团,招商蛇口,绿地集团,中海地产,新城控股,中国国贸,宝龙地产,世茂集团,金融街,瑞安房地产,SOHO中国,茂业国际,华侨城,上实城开,丰树集团,新世界中国,合生创展,长实地产,金隅股份,雅居乐,恒基兆业,中国奥园,中国恒大,洛克菲勒家族,巴克莱投资银行、通用电气、NBC新闻网总部、时代华纳,美联社,任天堂,星巴克,希尔顿,罗斯福酒店,美国捷得,KPF,粤海喜来登酒店

商业综合体兼具推动购物中西等线下实体经济消费、文娱产业和商业地产发展等多重作用。iiMedia Research(艾媒咨询)数据显示,2018年开业购物中心业态占比以文体娱乐类最高,达38%,其次为餐饮30%。值得关注的是,与宠物经济、儿童经济等关联度高的体验业态持续增长,如室内动物园、室内运动馆、小剧场、黑科技体验馆、围棋馆等不断出现。另一方面,2019年住宅房产的紧缩政策,驱动地产企业向商业地产转向。iiMedia Research (艾媒咨询)数据显示,中国主要一线城市以北京上海为首,拥有超过100家购物中心,且核心商圈租金超过2000元,伴随着城市收缩等供求关系进一步失衡,地产企业及时调整应对策略,部分企业更关注三四线城市发展。

The commercial complex has multiple functions of promoting the real economic consumption, cultural and entertainment industry and commercial real estate development under the shopping line between China and the West. According to iiMedia Research (AI Media Consulting), the largest proportion of shopping centers opened in 2018 is sports and entertainment, with 38%, followed by catering, with 30%. It is worth paying attention to that experience formats with high correlation with pet economy and children's economy continue to grow, such as indoor zoo, indoor sports hall, small theater, black technology experience hall, go hall, etc. On the other hand, the tightening policy for residential real estate in 2019 will drive real estate enterprises to turn to commercial real estate. IiMedia Research (AI Media Consulting) data show that China's major first-tier cities, led by Beijing and Shanghai, have more than 100 shopping centers, and the rent in the core business circle exceeds 2,000 yuan. With the supply-demand relationship further unbalanced such as urban contraction, real estate enterprises have adjusted their coping strategies in a timely manner, and some enterprises pay more attention to the development of third-and fourth-tier cities.

地区经济、交通运输和旅游业的发展促进中国城市商圈繁荣发展,iiMedia Research(艾媒咨询)监测发现,广东地区对商圈的关注度最高,高收入企业白领是中国一线城市商圈主要消费者;非一线城市在交通运输和旅游业的带动下,也步入商圈快速发展阶段。但值得注意,由于中国商圈的高速发展,商业业态同质化现象严重、商圈客群粘性低等可能成态同质化现象严重是制约商圈进一步发展的主要问题。

Under the influence of the improvement of Chinese residents' consumption level, the diversification of transportation modes and the continuous prosperity of tourism, China's urban business district has developed rapidly. China's first-tier cities have densely distributed business districts, and there are a large number of core business districts. The shops in the business circle are densely populated and the transportation is convenient. The number of non-first-tier cities is small, but driven by economic development, transportation and tourism, the non-first-tier cities develop rapidly. According to iiMedia Research, the concentration index of Chengdu's business district is the highest, reaching 138.0, followed by Chongqing and Shanghai, which business circle intensity indexes are 133.6 and 102.3 respectively. At present, the Chinese urban business district has experienced the traditional department store period and the shopping mall period, and has now entered the period of large-scale commercial complex, forming a multi-center, multi-level, networked business circle distribution pattern. However, at this stage, China's urban business district still has problems such as serious homogenization of commercial formats, low attraction of business districts, and low customer density in the business circle. In the future, transformation and upgrading, consumers’ demands and the construction of a “smart business circle” are important directions for the development of urban business districts.

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