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关于“抖音”的报告

在中国移动互联网加速渗透的过程中,特别是在2020年新冠疫情冲击下,短视频和在线直播行业恢复强势增长势头。iiMedia Research(艾媒咨询)数据显示,2019年,中国短视频用户规模为6.27亿,预计到2020年将同比增长15.2%至7.22亿。2020年3月,中国网络直播用户规模进一步扩大,达到5.6亿。在行业大背景利好的情况下,欢聚时代的直播、短视频业务也迎来利好,数据显示,2020年第三季度,欢聚时代总营收62.864亿元,同比增长36.1%;净利润8.0亿元,同比增长64.0%;全球移动月活3.901亿,其中海外用户占比89.4%。然而受国际大环境的影响,全球总付费用户数同比下降4.7%至410万。

In the process of accelerating penetration of China Mobile Internet, especially under the impact of the 2020 new crown epidemic, the short video and live online broadcasting industry has resumed strong growth momentum. according to the data of iimedia research, China had 627m short video users in 2019 and is expected to grow 15.2 per cent year-on-year to 722M by 2020. In March 2020, the number of live streaming users in China expanded further, reaching 560 million. In the industry background, the live broadcast, Short video business in the era of reunion also welcomed the good, data show that in the third quarter of 2020, the era of reunion total revenue 6,286.4 million yuan, up 36.1% year-on-year; net profit 800 million yuan, up 64.0% ; Global Mobile monthly activity is 390.1 million, of which 89.4% are overseas users. However, due to the global environment, the total number of paying users worldwide fell 4.7% to 4.1 million.

本报告研究涉及企业/品牌/案例:辛选、谦寻文化、美ONE。

直播电商由于带给人们一种专业导购式体验、节约了用户购物成本、顺应了消费下沉趋势和节约了部分商家的获客成本而提供了独特价值,具有内生增长能力。中国的直播电商行业起步于2016年电商平台对新业务模式的探索,2019年开始,市场增长迅速。iiMedia Research(艾媒咨询)数据显示,2019年,中国直播电商市场规模达到4338亿元,相比于2018年增长了226.2%,预计到2021年,市场规模可以达到12012亿元。直播电商用户整体上是理性的,用户选择同直播电商购物的最主要原因是优惠限时限量(占50.8%)、商品性价比高(占48.3%)、商品是我需要的(占46.7%)。消费者最主要的退货原因是商品质量有问题,占43.3%,而发货不及时和售后服务不好也是导致退货的重要原因,分别占22.5%和18.3%。因此,供应链管理能力和团队运营能力构成了直播电商平台的核心竞争力。此外,随着直播电商的发展,C2M模式将会使拥有供应链的头部企业受益,直播电商将会带动高性价比白牌商品市场增长,从而为实体经济赋能。

Live e-commerce provides unique value and has endogenous growth ability because it brings people a kind of professional shopping guide experience, saves the shopping cost of users, conforms to the downward trend of consumption and saves the customer acquisition cost of some businesses. China's live e-commerce industry started in 2016 when e-commerce platforms explored new business models. From 2019, the market grew rapidly. As the data of iiMedia Research showed,the market scale of China's live e-commerce reached 433.8 billion yuan in 2019, an increase of 226.2% compared with that in 2018. It is estimated that the market size will reach 1201.2 billion yuan by 2021. On the whole, the users of live e-commerce are rational. The main reasons why users choose to shop with live e-commerce are the time and amount limit(50.8%), the high cost performance ratio (48.3%) and the products I need (46.7%). The most important reason for consumers to return goods is the bad quality of goods, accounting for 43.3%. The delayed delivery and poor after-sales service are also important reasons for the return of goods, accounting for 22.5% and 18.3% respectively. Therefore, supply chain management ability and team operation ability constitute the core competitiveness of live e-commerce platform. In addition, with the development of live e-commerce, C2M mode will benefit the head enterprises with supply chain, and the live e-commerce will drive the growth of white brand commodity market with high cost performance, thus enabling the real economy.

目前短视频平台的聚合属性突出,能够覆盖用户生活各个方面,展现出强社交属性。iiMedia Research(艾媒咨询)数据显示,2020年中国短视频用户规模将增长至7.22亿人,成为新的国民级应用行业。在短视频行业影响力持续扩大的背景下,全球发力的抖音在用户规模和网络热度上增长迅速,其月活跃用户从2018年1月落后快手1.30亿人至2020年6月已反超1.13亿人。面对抖音的攻势,快手也承受巨大竞争压力,虽然平台在2020年依靠直播电商获得不错的增长,但仍需加快资本化道路,否则若字节跳动上市进度提前,其市值恐难以支撑。

At present, the aggregation attribution of micro-video platform is outstanding, which can cover all aspect of users’ life and show strong social attributes. As the data of iiMedia Research showed, user scale of China micro-video industry will grow to 722 million people by 2020 and is becoming a new national application industry. Tik Tok has been growing rapidly under the background of micro-video continued expanding. Its user scale and Internet Heat index is growing fast. Its MAUs is 130 million left behind Kuaishou’s in January 2018, but surpassing 113 million in June 2020. Facing with Tik Tok’s offense, Kuaishou also suffers enormous competition pressure. Although the platform has gained a good growth in 2020 with the business of Live Streaming E-Commerce, capitalization acceleration is still needed. Otherwise, if ByteDance take IPO ahead of schedule, Kuaishou’s market value will be hard to sustain.

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