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关于“瑞幸咖啡”的报告

本报告研究涉及企业/品牌/案例:宝贝格子,盒马鲜生,瑞幸咖啡;其他提及企业/品牌:永辉超市,苏宁易购,华润万家,沃尔玛,每日优鲜,天虹,居然之家,支付宝,京东支付,京东物流,日日顺,顺丰速运,圆通速递,拼多多,云集,贝店,活动行,恰克,淘宝直播,启博软件,京喜,阿里巴巴,聚划算,小红书,洋码头,什么值得买,花生日记,淘集集,万色城,微信,抖音,快手,天猫,云闪付

数据显示,中国社会消费品零售规模稳步增长,2019年达到41.2万亿元。网络零售额占比也不断上升,2019年网络零售额达到10.6万亿元,占社会消费品零售总额25.7%。在消费升级和新兴技术推动下,新零售产业蓬勃发展,万亿市场规模加速形成。当前,新零售产业线上线下加速融合,新式营销层出不穷,整体呈现全渠道、数字化、社群化等特点。由数据、供应链、物流、支付、金融组成的新零售生态系统不断完善,促使面向细分人群、细分品类、细分市场的多种新零售业态快速发展,随之涌现出一批较具发展潜力的新零售标杆企业。艾媒咨询分析师认为,新零售挑战与机遇并存。短期,互联网人口增长红利趋尽,行业竞争日趋激烈,对新零售产业链上下游玩家提出更高要求,考验营销能力、精细化运营能力;长期,借助5G、大数据、人工智能等新兴信息技术手段,新老零售企业将被赋予更多能力,产业整体效率有望大幅提升,市场规模也将加速扩大。

Data show that the retail scale of China's social consumer goods has steadily increased, reaching 41.2 trillion yuan in 2019. The proportion of online retail sales has also continued to rise. In 2019, online retail sales reached 10.6 trillion yuan, accounting for 25.7% of total retail sales of consumer goods. Driven by consumption upgrades and emerging technologies, the new retail industry is booming, and the trillion-dollar market is accelerating. At present, the new retail industry is accelerating the integration of online and offline, new marketing is emerging endlessly, and the overall characteristics of omnichannel, digitalization, and community are presented. The new retail ecosystem consisting of data, supply chain, logistics, payment, and finance has been continuously improved, prompting the rapid development of a variety of new retail formats for segments, categories, and markets, and a number of more new retail benchmarking company with development potential. iiMedia Consulting analysts believe that new retail challenges and opportunities coexist. In the short term, the dividends of the growth of the Internet population are exhausting, and competition in the industry is becoming increasingly fierce. It places higher requirements on upstream and downstream players in the new retail industry chain to test marketing capabilities and refined operation capabilities. In the long term, it will use emerging information technologies such as 5G, big data, and artificial intelligence Means, new and old retail companies will be given more capabilities, the overall efficiency of the industry is expected to increase significantly, and the market size will also accelerate.

本报告研究涉及企业/品牌/案例:酷我音乐,网易云音乐,QQ音乐,腾讯音乐,SM娱乐,环球音乐集团,阿里音乐,酷狗音乐,虾米音乐,酷我聚星,有妖气,瑞幸咖啡,哔哩哔哩,中国青年报

iiMedia Research(艾媒咨询)数据显示,2019年手机音乐客户端整体用户规模较上年增长6.6%,达5.80亿人,预计2020年将增至6.18亿人。月活跃用户数量方面,2019年12月QQ音乐、酷狗音乐和酷我音乐三大APP用户活跃程度相对较高,活跃用户数分别为31644.1万、26799.1万和11684.7万。艾媒咨询分析师认为,在中国音乐市场日趋规范和成熟的背景下,如何求同存异,完善产业链,构建可持续发展的商业模式成为现阶段各音乐平台的发展重点。巨头平台虽然在用户、版权、商业资源方面更具优势,但行业转型发展期也为腰尾部平台带来了发展新机遇。

According to the data of iiMedia Research, the overall user scale of mobile music client in 2019 increased by 6.6% over the previous year, reaching 580 million, and is expected to increase to 618 million in 2020. In terms of monthly active users, QQ music, Kugou music and Kuwo music were relatively active in December 2019, with 316441000, 26799100 and 11684700 active users respectively. iiMedia consulting analysts believe that in the context of China's increasingly standardized and mature music market, how to seek common ground while reserving differences, improve the industrial chain, and build a sustainable business model has become the development focus of various music platforms at this stage. Although the giant platform has more advantages in terms of users, copyright and commercial resources, the industry transformation and development period also brings new opportunities for the development of the waist tail platform.

本报告研究涉及企业/品牌/案例:新乳业,西麦食品,天味食品,丸美股份,立华股份,有友,日晨股份,华致酒行,小熊家电,中国飞鹤,瑞幸咖啡,新诺威,久量股份,仙乐健康,三只松鼠,嘉艺控股,植华集团,百威亚太,博尼控股,幸福来,优品360,太兴集团,利华控股集团,香态食品,登辉控股,赏之味

iiMedia Research(艾媒咨询)数据显示,2019年共27家大众消费企业首次公开募股,其中44.4%为食品饮料行业企业。这些企业中有13家沪深股上市,14家境外上市。中国大众消费企业中沪深股上市的占比达56%,退市情况相较境外市场保持稳定。市值排名top10的中国大众消费企业中8家来自食品饮料行业,而2018-2019市值涨幅top10的中国大众消费企业7家来自服装行业。艾媒咨询师认为,大众消费企业中食品饮料领域的巨头公司仍保持竞争优势,服装行业较其他行业具有更多的上市空间。2019年大众消费企业在沪深股和港股退市数目增加,部分大众消费企业面临着库存、门店、获客等多方面的问题, 大众消费企业需要对产品和服务及时进行创新和升级,才能更好地应对新产品、新零售的挑战。
As the data of iiMedia Research showed, there are 27 IPOs of mass-marketed companies in 2019, of which 44.4% are food and beverage companies. 13 of them are listed in Shanghai and Shenzhen stocks market, and 14 are listed overseas. Among the mass-marketed companies in China, the listing of Shanghai and Shenzhen shares accounted for 56%, and the delisting situation remained stable compared to the overseas market. 8 of the Top 10 Chinese consumer companies by market capitalization are from the food and beverage industry, and 7 of the Top 10 Chinese mass-marketed companies by market capitalization of 2018-2019 are from the apparel industry. Analyst from iiMedia Research believes that, the giant companies in the food and beverage sector of mass-marketed companies still maintain competitive advantages, and the apparel industry has more listing space than other industries. In 2019, the number of delisting enterprises from Shanghai and Shenzhen stocks and Hong Kong stocks will increase. Some mass-marketed companies face problems such as inventory, stores, and customer acquisition. Mass-marketed companies need to innovate and upgrade their products and services in time to meet the challenges of new products and new retail.

中国咖啡市场存量小,市场潜力大。上游和中游的初加工、深加工技术落后,下游缺乏本土知名品牌,未来现磨咖啡增长潜力巨大。瑞幸咖啡凭借低价策略+多元化精准营销,并通过线下密集布局自营店,精准定位咖啡的刚需人群,获取了大量用户。截至2018年底,瑞幸咖啡线下门店总数突破2000家,消费人数达1254万人,销售量超过8968万杯。但瑞幸目前的管理和发展模式正在面临一系列的挑战。主要挑战:(1)中国茶文化底蕴深厚,现磨咖啡刚需市场小;(2)管理粗糙,咖啡品质参差不齐;(3)短期内资金缺口大,盈利成难题。

China's coffee market has a small stock and a large market potential. The Primary and deep processing technologies of the upstream and midstream are backward, and the downstream link lack local famous brands. With the low price strategy + diversified precision marketing strategy, Luckin Coffee has acquired a large number of users through the densely-distributed self-operated stores. By the end of 2018, the total number of stores under the Luckin Coffee line exceeded 2,000, with a consumption of 12.54 million and a sales volume of over 89.68 million. However, Luckin's current management and development model is facing a series of challenges. The main challenges: (1) China's tea culture is profound, freshly brewed coffee just has a small market; (2) Management is rough, quality of coffee is uneven; (3) Short-term funding gap is large, and profitability becomes a problem.

本报告研究涉及企业/品牌/案例:瑞幸咖啡“暴雷”事件;好未来“自爆”事件;跟谁学“夸大数据”事件; 蔚来汽车事件总览 ;

2020年4月2日晚,瑞幸咖啡发布公告承认虚假交易约22亿元人民币,当日瑞幸咖啡股价遭断崖式下跌,一夜蒸发350亿元,直到4月7日晚停牌。早在2个月前,知名做空机构浑水(MuddyWaters Research)针对瑞幸发布做空报告称其存在财务、运营数据作假的行为,当时瑞幸对该报告予以了否认。从一开始的否认造假到自爆虚假交易,瑞幸被做空的事件掀起了中概股做空潮。 近期,做空机构将矛头指向了其他中概股公司,对爱奇艺、好未来、跟谁学等公司发起接连攻击,瑞幸咖啡所产生的“蝴蝶效应”正在持续发酵。

On the evening of April 2, 2020, Ruixing coffee issued a notice admitting that the false transaction was about 2.2 billion yuan. On that day, Ruixing coffee's share price fell precipitously, evaporating 35 billion yuan overnight, until it was suspended on the evening of April 7. As early as two months ago, muddy waters research, a well-known short seller, denied Ruixing's report that it had falsified its financial and operational data when it issued a short report. From the initial denial of false trading to the self explosion of false trading, Ruixing was short event set off a short trend in China's equity market. Recently, short sellers have targeted other Chinese equity companies, launching successive attacks on iqiyi, tal and who to learn from. The "Butterfly Effect" produced by Ruixing coffee is continuously fermenting.

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